Updated AR notebook to PyMC 5.0

[fonnesbeck]

{Insert Description}

Updated to current PyMC version, and changed example to use AR(2) as generating model to make things a little more interesting.

• Notebook follows style guide https://docs.pymc.io/en/latest/contributing/jupyter_style.html
• PR description contains a link to the relevant issue:
  • a tracker one for existing notebooks (tracker issues have the "tracker id" label)
  • or a proposal one for new notebooks
• Check the notebook is not excluded from any pre-commit check: https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-examples/blob/main/.pre-commit-config.yaml

Helpful links

• https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc-examples/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md

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