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Tom's March 23 edits of ge lecture
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lectures/ge_arrow.md

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## Introduction
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This lecture is a laboratory for experimenting with instances of competitive equilibria of an infinite-horizon pure exchange economy with
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This lecture is a laboratory for experimenting with competitive equilibria of an infinite-horizon pure exchange economy with
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* Markov endowments
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* Complete markets in one-period Arrow state-contingent securities
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* Discounted expected utility preferences of a kind often specified in macro and finance
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* Discounted expected utility preferences of a kind often used in macroeconomics and finance
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* Common expected utility preferences across agents
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* Common beliefs across agents
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* A constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) one-period utility function that implies the existence of a representative consumer whose consumption process can be plugged into a formula for the pricing kernel for one-step Arrow securities and thereby determine equilbrium prices before determing an equilibrium distribution of wealth
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* A constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) one-period utility function that implies the existence of a representative consumer whose consumption process can be plugged into a formula for the pricing kernel for one-step Arrow securities and thereby determine equilbrium prices before determining an equilibrium distribution of wealth
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* Diverse endowments across agents that provide motivations for reallocating goods across time and Markov states
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* Diverse endowments across agents that provide motivations to reallocate across time and Markov states
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We impose enough restrictions to allow us to **Bellmanize** competitive equilibrium prices and quantities
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We impose restrictions that allow us to **Bellmanize** competitive equilibrium prices and quantities
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We use Bellman equations to describe
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In the course of presenting the model we shall describe these important ideas
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* the widespread use a **resolvent operator** in this class of models
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* a **resolvent operator** widely used in this class of models
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* the necessity of state-by-state **borrowing limits** in infinite horizon economies
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* state-by-state **borrowing limits** required in infinite horizon economies
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* the absence of any required **borrowing limits** in finite horizon economies
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* absence of **borrowing limits** in finite horizon economies
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* a counterpart of the law of iterated expectations known as a **law of iterated values**
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* a notion of **state-variable degeneracy** that prevails within a competitive equilibrium and that explains repeated appearances of resolvent operators
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* a **state-variable degeneracy** that prevails within a competitive equilibrium and that explains many appearances of resolvent operators
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In this lecture we shall follow much of the
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literatures in macroeconomics and econometrics and assume that
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$\pi_t(s^t)$ is induced by a Markov process.
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$\pi_t(s^t)$ is induced by a Markov process.
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There are $I$ consumers named $i=1, \ldots , I$.
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Consumer $i$
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purchases a history-dependent consumption plan $c^i =
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\{c_t^i(s^t)\}_{t=0}^\infty$ and
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orders these
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consumption streams by
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\{c_t^i(s^t)\}_{t=0}^\infty$
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Consumer $i$ orders consumption plans by
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$$ U_i(c^i) =
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\sum_{t=0}^\infty \sum_{s^t} \beta^t u_i[c_t^i(s^t)]
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We adopt the assumption, routinely
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employed in much of macroeconomics,
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that consumers share probabilities $\pi_t(s^t)$ for all $t$ and $s^t$.
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that consumers share probabilities $\pi_t(s^t)$ for all $t$ and $s^t$.
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A **feasible allocation** satisfies
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* $v^i(a,s)$ is the maximum expected discounted utility that consumer $i$ with current financial wealth $a$ can attain in state $s$.
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The value function satisfies the Bellman equation
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The optimal value function satisfies the Bellman equation
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$$
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v^i(a, s) = \max_{c, \hat a(s')} \left\{ u_i(c) + \beta \sum_{s'} v^i[\hat a(s'),s'] \pi (s' | s) \right\}
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\leq y^i(s) + a
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$$
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and also
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and also the constraints
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$$
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\begin{aligned}
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The third condition asserts that there are zero net aggregate claims in all Markov states.
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The fourth condition asserts that the economy is closed and starts off from a position in which there
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The fourth condition asserts that the economy is closed and starts from a situation in which there
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are zero net claims in the aggregate.
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If an allocation and prices in a recursive competitive equilibrium are to be
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Starting the system off with $a_0^i =0$ forall $i$ has a striking implication that we can call **state variable degeneracy**.
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Starting the system with $a_0^i =0$ forall $i$ has a striking implication that we can call **state variable degeneracy**.
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Here is what we mean by **state variable degeneracy**:
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Thus, although there are two state variables in the value function $v^i(a,s)$, within a recursive competitive equilibrium
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Notice that although there are two state variables in the value function $v^i(a,s)$, within a recursive competitive equilibrium
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starting from $a_0^i = 0 \ \forall i$ at the starting Markov state $s_0$, two outcomes prevail:
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* $a_0^i = 0 $ for all $i$ whenever the Markov state $s_t$ returns to $s_0$.
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* Financial wealth $a$ is an exact function of the Markov state $s$.
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The first finding asserts that each household recurrently visits the zero financial wealth state with which he began life.
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The first finding asserts that each household recurrently visits the zero financial wealth state with which it began life.
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The second finding asserts that the exogenous Markov state is all we require to track an individual within a competitive equilibrium.
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We are ready to dive into some Bellman equations and some Python code.
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As usual, we start with Python imports
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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import numpy as np
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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%matplotlib inline
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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np.set_printoptions(suppress=True)
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```
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### Markov asset prices primer
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$$
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We'll use these objects to state the following useful facts
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We'll use these objects to state a useful property in asset pricing theory.
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### Laws of iterated expectations and iterated values
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V(d(s_{t+j})|s_t) = \sum_{s_{t+j}} d(s_{t+j}) Q_j(s_{t+j}| s_t)
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$$
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The law of iterated values states
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The **law of iterated values** states
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$$
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V \left[ V (d(s_{t+j}) | s_{t+1}) \right] | s_t = V(d(s_{t+j}))| s_t
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where it is understood that $ u(\alpha_k y)$ is a vector.
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Below we solve several fun examples with Python code.
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We are ready to dive into some Python code.
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As usual, we start with Python imports.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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import numpy as np
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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%matplotlib inline
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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np.set_printoptions(suppress=True)
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```
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First, we create a Python class to compute the objects that comprise a competitive equilibrium
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with sequential trading of one-period Arrow securities.
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(The reader will notice that the code is set up to handle finite-horizon economies indexed by horizon $T$.
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We'll study some finite horizon economies after we look at some infinite-horizon economies.)
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The reader will notice that the code is set up to handle finite-horizon economies indexed by horizon $T$.
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We'll study some finite horizon economies after we look at some infinite-horizon economies.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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class RecurCompetitive:

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