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Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/markov_asset.md
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@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ It is useful to regard equation {eq}`lteeqs102` as a generalization of equatio
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* In equation {eq}`rnapex`, the stochastic discount factor $m_{t+1} = \beta$, a constant.
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* In equation {eq}`rnapex`, the covariance term ${\rm cov}_t (m_{t+1}, d_{t+1}+ p_{t+1})$ is zero because $m_{t+1} = \beta$.
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* In equation {eq}`rnapex`, ${\mathbb E}_t m_{t+1}$ can be interpreted as the reciprocal of the one-period risk-free gross interest rate.
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* When $m_{t+1}$ is covaries more negatively with the payout $p_{t+1} + d_{t+1}$, the price of the asset is lower.
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* When $m_{t+1}$ covaries more negatively with the payout $p_{t+1} + d_{t+1}$, the price of the asset is lower.
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Equation {eq}`lteeqs102` asserts that the covariance of the stochastic discount factor with the one period payout $d_{t+1} + p_{t+1}$ is an important determinant of the price $p_t$.
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Let's start with a version of the celebrated asset pricing model of Robert E. Lucas, Jr. {cite}`Lucas1978`.
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As in {cite}`Lucas1978`, suppose that the stochastic discount factor takes the form
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Lucas considered an abstract pure exchange economy with these features:
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* a single non-storable consumption good
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* a Markov process that governs the total amount of the consumption good available each period
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* a single *tree* that each period yields *fruit* that equals the total amount of consumption available to the economy
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* a competitive market in *shares* in the tree that entitles their owners to corresponding shares of the *dividend* stream, i.e., the *fruit* stream, yielded by the tree
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* a representative consumer who in a competitive equilibrium
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* consumes the economy's entire endowment each period
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* owns 100 percent of the shares in the tree
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As in {cite}`Lucas1978`, we suppose that the stochastic discount factor takes the form
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```{math}
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:label: lucsdf
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Assume the existence of an endowment that follows growth process {eq}`mass_fmce`.
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The asset being priced is a claim on the endowment process.
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The asset being priced is a claim on the endowment process, i.e., the *Lucas tree* described above.
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Following {cite}`Lucas1978`, suppose further that in equilibrium, consumption
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is equal to the endowment, so that $d_t = c_t$ for all $t$.
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Following {cite}`Lucas1978`, we suppose that in equilibrium the representative consumer's consumption equals the aggregate endowment, so that $d_t = c_t$ for all $t$.
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For utility, we'll assume the **constant relative risk aversion** (CRRA)
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specification
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J(x, y) := g(y)^{1-\gamma} P(x, y)
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$$
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then we can rewrite equation {eq}`eq:neweqn101} in vector form as
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then we can rewrite equation {eq}`eq:neweqn101` in vector form as
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$$
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v = \beta J ({\mathbb 1} + v )
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This is because, with a positively correlated state process, higher states indicate higher future consumption growth.
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With the stochastic discount factor {eq}`lucsdf2`, higher growth decreases the
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discount factor, lowering the weight placed on future returns.
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discount factor, lowering the weight placed on future dividends.
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