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29 changes: 25 additions & 4 deletions lectures/heavy_tails.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -39,7 +39,17 @@ register_matplotlib_converters()

## Overview

In this section we give some motivation for the lecture.
Heavy-tailed distributions are a class of distributions that generate "extreme" outcomes.

In the natural sciences (and in more traditional economics courses), heavy-tailed distributions are seen as quite exotic and non-standard.

However, it turns out that heavy-tailed distributions play a crucial role in economics.

In fact many -- if not most -- of the important distributions in economics are heavy tailed.

In this lecture we explain what heavy tails are and why they are -- or at least
why they should be -- central to economic analysis.


### Introduction: light tails

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -112,7 +122,7 @@ too much from the mean.
Putting this another way, light-tailed distributions are those that
rarely generate extreme values.

(A more formal definition is given below.)
(A more formal definition is given [below](https://intro.quantecon.org/heavy_tails.html#light-and-heavy-tails).)

Many statisticians and econometricians
use rules of thumb such as "outcomes more than four or five
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -196,9 +206,19 @@ The histogram also looks different to the histogram of the normal
distribution:

```{code-cell} ipython3
r = np.random.standard_t(df=5, size=1000)

fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.hist(r, bins=60, alpha=0.4, label='bitcoin returns', density=True)

xmin, xmax = plt.xlim()
x = np.linspace(xmin, xmax, 100)
p = norm.pdf(x, np.mean(r), np.std(r))
ax.plot(x, p, 'k', linewidth=2, label='normal distribution')

ax.set_xlabel('returns', fontsize=12)
ax.legend()

plt.show()
```

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -246,14 +266,15 @@ like
* forecasting
* taxation (across a heavy-tailed income distribution), etc.

We return to these points below.
We return to these points [below](https://intro.quantecon.org/heavy_tails.html#why-do-heavy-tails-matter).






## Visual comparisons
In this section, we will introduce important concepts such as the Pareto distribution, Counter CDFs, and Power laws, which aid in recognizing heavy-tailed distributions.

Later we will provide a mathematical definition of the difference between
light and heavy tails.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -523,7 +544,7 @@ plt.show()
As with the CCDF, the empirical CCDF from the Pareto distributions is
approximately linear in a log-log plot.

We will use this idea below when we look at real data.
We will use this idea [below](https://intro.quantecon.org/heavy_tails.html#heavy-tails-in-economic-cross-sections) when we look at real data.


### Power laws
Expand Down
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