Add Hierarchical BVAR example (#456)

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] initial draft of Hierarchical BVAR example

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] focused discussion on simple VARs and fake data and irish example compared to statsmodels. Included example of small hierarchical case.

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] added more explanatory text and estimated hierarchical model using blackjax nuts sampler

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] improved visuals and add all countries to hierarchical model fit

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] fixed issue with hierarchical model fit. Fixed some typos too.

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] added forest plots, corrected typos and improved discussion.

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] added image and scrollable view of image for full model

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* Update bayesian_var_model.myst.md

change filepath to full_model.png

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] reverting full model image

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] updated with feedback from pull request review

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] tidying bibtex file

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] trying bibtex tidy again

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] added new line to end of bib file

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] removed tabs from bib entry

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] indent with 2 spaces bibtex

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] think i got it this time bibtex

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] updated with requested changes and improved prior of model for statsmodels comparison

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

* [Hierarchical BVAR #286] corrected hierarchical model tag

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

Signed-off-by: Nathaniel <[email protected]>

Author: NathanielF