counterfactual excess covid deaths notebook (#391)

* add excess deaths files

* add myst file

* add tags

* fix typo

* edit text about temperature and deaths

* Covid-19 -> COVID-19. And grammatical fix

* grammatical fix

* simpler data import + ZeroSumNormal + update figure title + remove sample kwargs

* bring in retrodiction as a more specific description of what we are doing

Author: Benjamin T. Vincent

examples/case_studies/excess_deaths.ipynb

@@ -0,0 +1,198 @@
+date,temp,deaths,year,month,t,pre
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examples/data/deaths_and_temps_england_wales.csv

@@ -131,6 +131,14 @@ @article{goodman1999
   title         = {Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy},
   journal       = {Annals of Internal Medicine}
 }
+@article{google_causal_impact2015,
+  title         = {Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models},
+  author        = {Kay H. Brodersen and Fabian Gallusser and Jim Koehler and Nicolas Remy and Steven L. Scott},
+  year          = {2015},
+  journal       = {Annals of Applied Statistics},
+  pages         = {247--274},
+  volume        = {9}
+}
 @misc{harper2015movielens,
   title         = {The MovieLens Datasets: History and Context},
   author        = {Harper, F. Maxwell and Konstan, Joseph A.},