"[Adaptive error model](https://github.com/alan-turing-institute/pymc/blob/mlda_all_notebooks/docs/source/notebooks/MLDA_adaptive_error_model.ipynb) (external link): In this notebook we use MLDA to tackle another inverse problem; groundwarer flow modeling. The aim is to infer the posterior distribution of model parameters (hydraulic conductivity) given data (measurements of hydraulic head). In this example we make use of PyTensor Ops in order to define a \"black box\" likelihood, i.e. a likelihood that uses external code. Specifically, our likelihood uses the [FEniCS](https://fenicsproject.org/) library to solve a PDE. This is a common scenario, as PDEs of this type are slow to solve with scipy or other standard libraries. Note that this notebook is outside the core PyMC repository because FEniCS is not a PyMC dependency. We employ the adaptive error model (AEM) feature and compare the performance of basic MLDA with AEM-enhanced MLDA. The idea of Adaptive Error Model (AEM) is to estimate the mean and variance of the forward-model error between adjacent levels, i.e. estimate the bias of the coarse forward model compared to the fine forward model, and use those estimates to correct the coarse model. Using the technique should improve ESS/sec on the fine level.\n",
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