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examples/howto/marginalizing-models.ipynb

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"id": "e8dd6e73-6d3b-4ee0-9bff-eb0a581399af",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"That's a relatively simple example. The same methods work well-enough even for the [coal mining](https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/stable/learn/core_notebooks/pymc_overview.html#case-study-2-coal-mining-disasters) switchpoint model. The coal mining dataset records the number of coal mining disasters in the UK between 1851 and 1962. The time series dataset captures a time when mining safety regulations are being introduced, we try to estimate when this occurred using a discrete `switchpoint` variable."
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"That's a relatively simple example. The same methods work well-enough even for the {ref}`Coal mining <pymc:pymc_overview#case-study-2-coal-mining-disasters>` switchpoint model. The coal mining dataset records the number of coal mining disasters in the UK between 1851 and 1962. The time series dataset captures a time when mining safety regulations are being introduced, we try to estimate when this occurred using a discrete `switchpoint` variable."
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]
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},
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{
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"source": [
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"plt.scatter(years, after_marg.posterior.lp_switchpoint.mean(dim=[\"chain\", \"draw\"]))\n",
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"plt.axvline(x=1891, c=\"orange\")\n",
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"plt.xlabel(\"$\\mathrm{year}$\")\n",
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"plt.ylabel(\"$\\log p(\\mathrm{switchpoint}=\\mathrm{year})$\");"
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"plt.xlabel(r\"$\\mathrm{year}$\")\n",
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"plt.ylabel(r\"$\\log p(\\mathrm{switchpoint}=\\mathrm{year})$\");"
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]
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{

examples/howto/marginalizing-models.myst.md

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That's a relatively simple example. The same methods work well-enough even for the [coal mining](https://www.pymc.io/projects/docs/en/stable/learn/core_notebooks/pymc_overview.html#case-study-2-coal-mining-disasters) switchpoint model. The coal mining dataset records the number of coal mining disasters in the UK between 1851 and 1962. The time series dataset captures a time when mining safety regulations are being introduced, we try to estimate when this occurred using a discrete `switchpoint` variable.
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That's a relatively simple example. The same methods work well-enough even for the {ref}`Coal mining <pymc:pymc_overview#case-study-2-coal-mining-disasters>` switchpoint model. The coal mining dataset records the number of coal mining disasters in the UK between 1851 and 1962. The time series dataset captures a time when mining safety regulations are being introduced, we try to estimate when this occurred using a discrete `switchpoint` variable.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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plt.scatter(years, after_marg.posterior.lp_switchpoint.mean(dim=["chain", "draw"]))
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plt.axvline(x=1891, c="orange")
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plt.xlabel("$\mathrm{year}$")
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plt.ylabel("$\log p(\mathrm{switchpoint}=\mathrm{year})$");
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plt.xlabel(r"$\mathrm{year}$")
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plt.ylabel(r"$\log p(\mathrm{switchpoint}=\mathrm{year})$");
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3

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