|
| 1 | +--- |
| 2 | +title: NCHS Mortality Data |
| 3 | +parent: Data Sources and Signals |
| 4 | +grand_parent: COVIDcast Epidata API |
| 5 | +--- |
| 6 | + |
| 7 | +# NCHS Mortality Data |
| 8 | +{: .no_toc} |
| 9 | + |
| 10 | +* **Source name:** `nchs-mortality` |
| 11 | +* **First issued:** Epiweek 50 2020 (6-12 December 2020) |
| 12 | +* **Number of data revisions since 19 May 2020:** 0 |
| 13 | +* **Date of last change:** Never |
| 14 | +* **Available for:** state (see [geography coding docs](../covidcast_geography.md)) |
| 15 | +* **License:** [NCHS Data Use Agreement](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/restrictions.htm) |
| 16 | + |
| 17 | +This data source of national provisional death counts is based on death |
| 18 | +certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics |
| 19 | +[(NCHS)](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm). |
| 20 | + |
| 21 | +| Signal | Description | |
| 22 | +| --- | --- | |
| 23 | +| `deaths_covid_incidence_num` | Number of weekly new deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19 | |
| 24 | +| `deaths_covid_incidence_prop` | Number of weekly new deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, per 100,000 population | |
| 25 | +| `deaths_allcause_incidence_num` | Number of weekly new deaths from all causes | |
| 26 | +| `deaths_allcause_incidence_prop` | Number of weekly new deaths from all causes, per 100,000 population | |
| 27 | +| `deaths_flu_incidence_num` | Number of weekly new deaths involving Influenza and at least one of (Pneumonia, COVID-19)| |
| 28 | +| `deaths_flu_incidence_prop` | Number of weekly new deaths involving Influenza and at least one of (Pneumonia, COVID-19), per 100,000 population | |
| 29 | +| `deaths_pneumonia_notflu_incidence_num` | Number of weekly new deaths involving Pneumonia, excluding Influenza deaths | |
| 30 | +| `deaths_pneumonia_notflu_incidence_prop` | Number of weekly new deaths involving Pneumonia, excluding Influenza deaths, per 100,000 population | |
| 31 | +| `deaths_covid_and_pneumonia_notflu_incidence_num`| Number of weekly new deaths involving COVID-19 and Pneumonia, excluding Influenza | |
| 32 | +| `deaths_covid_and_pneumonia_notflu_incidence_prop`| Number of weekly new deaths involving COVID-19 and Pneumonia, excluding Influenza, per 100,000 population | |
| 33 | +|`deaths_pneumonia_or_flu_or_covid_incidence_num`| Number of weekly new deaths involving Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19| |
| 34 | +|`deaths_pneumonia_or_flu_or_covid_incidence_prop`| Number of weekly new deaths involving Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19, per 100,000 population| |
| 35 | +|`deaths_percent_of_expected`| Number of weekly new deaths for all causes in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019| |
| 36 | + |
| 37 | +These signals are taken directly from [Table |
| 38 | +1](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm) without |
| 39 | +changes. National provisional death counts include deaths occurring within the |
| 40 | +50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of |
| 41 | +the date specified during a given time period. The deaths are classified based |
| 42 | +on a new ICD-10 code. (Note that the classification is based on all the codes on |
| 43 | +the death certificate, not just the primary cause of death). The codes that are |
| 44 | +considered for each signals are described in detail |
| 45 | +[here](https://github.com/cmu-delphi/covidcast-indicators/blob/nchs_mortality/nchs_mortality/DETAILS.md#metrics-level-1-m1). We |
| 46 | +export the state-level data as-is in a weekly format. |
| 47 | + |
| 48 | +## Table of contents |
| 49 | +{: .no_toc .text-delta} |
| 50 | + |
| 51 | +1. TOC |
| 52 | +{:toc} |
| 53 | + |
| 54 | +## Geographical Exceptions |
| 55 | + |
| 56 | +New York City is listed as its own region in the NCHS Mortality data, but |
| 57 | +we don't consider NYC separately. The death counts for NYC are included in New |
| 58 | +York State in our reports. |
| 59 | + |
| 60 | +## Report Using Epiweeks |
| 61 | + |
| 62 | +We report the NCHS Mortality data in a weekly format (`time_type=week` \& |
| 63 | +`time_value=\{YYYYWW\}`, where `YYYYWW` refers to an epiweek). The CDC defines |
| 64 | +the [epiweek](https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/document/MMWR_Week_overview.pdf) as |
| 65 | +seven days, from Sunday to Saturday. We check the week-ending dates provided in |
| 66 | +the NCHS morality data and use Python package |
| 67 | +[epiweeks](https://pypi.org/project/epiweeks/) to convert them into epiweek |
| 68 | +format. |
| 69 | + |
| 70 | +## Missingness |
| 71 | + |
| 72 | +NCHS suppresses some data to protect individual privacy and avoid publishing |
| 73 | +low-confidence figures. This includes data for jurisdictions where counts are |
| 74 | +between 1 and 9, and data for weeks where the counts are less than 50% of the |
| 75 | +expected number, since these provisional counts are highly incomplete and |
| 76 | +potentially misleading. |
| 77 | + |
| 78 | +## Lag and Backfill |
| 79 | + |
| 80 | +There is a lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death |
| 81 | +certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS, and processed for reporting |
| 82 | +purposes. The death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may |
| 83 | +increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from |
| 84 | +the states by NCHS. This delay can range from 1 to 8 weeks or even more. |
| 85 | +Some states report deaths on a daily basis, while other states report deaths weekly |
| 86 | +or monthly. State vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by |
| 87 | +COVID-19 related response activities which make death counts not comparable |
| 88 | +across states. We check for updates reported by NCHS every weekday but will |
| 89 | +report the signals weekly (on Monday). |
| 90 | + |
| 91 | +## Source and Licensing |
| 92 | + |
| 93 | +This data was originally published by the National Center for Health Statistics, |
| 94 | +and is made available here as a convenience to the forecasting community under |
| 95 | +the terms of the original license. The NCHS places restrictions on how this |
| 96 | +dataset may be used: you may not attempt to identify any individual included in |
| 97 | +the data, whether by itself or through linking to other |
| 98 | +individually=identifiable data; you may only use the dataset for statistical |
| 99 | +reporting and analysis. The full text of the [NCHS Data Use |
| 100 | +Agreement](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/restrictions.htm) is available |
| 101 | +from their website. |
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