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lectures/navy_captain.md

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plt.show()
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```
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## Was the Navy Captain’s hunch correct?
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## Was the Navy Captain’s Hunch Correct?
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We now compare average (i.e., frequentist) losses obtained by the
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frequentist and Bayesian decision rules.
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It is always positive.
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## More details
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## More Details
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We can provide more insights by focusing on the case in which
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$\pi^{*}=0.5=\pi_{0}$.
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t_idx = t_optimal - 1
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```
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### Distribution of Bayesian decision rule’s times to decide
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## Distribution of Bayesian Decision Rule’s Time to Decide
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By using simulations, we compute the frequency distribution of time to
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deciding for the Bayesian decision rule and compare that time to the
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plt.show()
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```
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### Probability of making correct decisions
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## Probability of Making Correct Decision
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Now we use simulations to compute the fraction of samples in which the
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Bayesian and the frequentist decision rules decide correctly.
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plt.show()
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```
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### Distribution of likelihood ratios at frequentist’s $t$
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## Distribution of Likelihood Ratios at Frequentist’s $t$
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Next we use simulations to construct distributions of likelihood ratios
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after $t$ draws.

lectures/re_with_feedback.md

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We'll start this lecture with a quick review of deterministic (i.e., non-random)
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first-order and second-order linear difference equations.
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## Linear difference equations
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## Linear Difference Equations
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We'll use the *backward shift* or *lag* operator $L$.
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The algebra of lag and forward shift operators can simplify representing and solving linear difference equations.
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### First order
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### First Order
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We want to solve a linear first-order scalar difference equation.
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The distributed lead in $u$ in {eq}`equn_5` need not
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converge when $|\lambda| < 1$.
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### Second order
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### Second Order
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Now consider the second order difference equation
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sequence $c \lambda^{-t}$ where $c$ is an arbitrary positive
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constant.
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## Some Python code
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## Some Python Code
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We’ll construct examples that illustrate {eq}`equation_3`.
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- it happens that in this example future $m$’s are always less
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than the current $m$
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## Alternative code
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## Alternative Code
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We could also have run the simulation using the quantecon
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**LinearStateSpace** code.
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plt.show()
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```
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### Special case
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### Special Case
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To simplify our presentation in ways that will let focus on an important
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idea, in the above second-order difference equation {eq}`equation_6` that governs
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Please keep these formulas in mind as we investigate an alternative
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route to and interpretation of our formula for $F$.
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## Another perspective
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## Another Perspective
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Above, we imposed stability or non-explosiveness on the solution of the key difference equation {eq}`equation_1`
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in Cagan's model by solving the unstable root of the characteristic polynomial forward.
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This is the unique **stabilizing value** of $p_0$ expressed as a function of
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$m_0$.
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### Refining the formula
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### Refining the Formula
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We can get an even more convenient formula for $p_0$ that is cast
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in terms of components of $Q$ instead of components of
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Q_1 = \begin{bmatrix} Q_{11} \\ Q_{21} \end{bmatrix}.
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$$
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### Some remarks about feedback
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### Remarks about Feedback
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We have expressed {eq}`equation_8` in what superficially appears to be a form in
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which $y_{t+1}$ feeds back on $y_t$, even though what we
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the log money supply actually does feed back on the log of the price
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level.
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## Log money supply feeds back on log price level
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## Log money Supply Feeds Back on Log Price Level
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An arrangement of eigenvalues that split around unity, with one being
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below unity and another being greater than unity, sometimes prevails when there is *feedback* from the log price level to the log
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magic_p0(1, δ=0.2)
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```
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## Big $P$, little $p$ interpretation
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## Big $P$, Little $p$ Interpretation
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It is helpful to view our solutions of difference equations having feedback from the price level or inflation to money or the rate of money
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creation in terms of the Big $K$, little $k$ idea discussed in {doc}`Rational Expectations Models <rational_expectations>`.
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F_check[0] + F_check[1] * F_star, F_star
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```
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## Fun with SymPy code
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## Fun with SymPy
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This section is a gift for readers who have made it this far.
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