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Tom's Sept 19 edits of two Cass-Koopmans lectures
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lectures/cass_koopmans_1.md

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@@ -93,21 +93,21 @@ Let $K_t$ be the stock of physical capital at time $t$.
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Let $\vec{C}$ = $\{C_0,\dots, C_T\}$ and
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$\vec{K}$ = $\{K_0,\dots,K_{T+1}\}$.
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### Digression: an Aggregation Theory
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### Digression: Aggregation Theory
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We use a concept of a representative consumer to be thought of as follows.
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There is a unit mass of identical consumers.
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There is a unit mass of identical consumers indexed by $\omega \in [0,1]$.
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For $\omega \in [0,1]$, consumption of consumer is $c(\omega)$.
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Consumption of consumer $\omega$ is $c(\omega)$.
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Aggregate consumption is
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$$
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C = \int_0^1 c(\omega) d \omega
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$$
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Consider the a welfare problem of choosing an allocation $\{c(\omega)\}$ across consumers to maximize
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Consider a welfare problem that chooses an allocation $\{c(\omega)\}$ across consumers to maximize
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$$
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\int_0^1 u(c(\omega)) d \omega
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Form a Lagrangian $L = \int_0^1 u(c(\omega)) d \omega + \lambda [C - \int_0^1 c(\omega) d \omega ] $.
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Differentiate under the integral signs with respect to each $\omega$ to obtain the first-order
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necessary condtions
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necessary conditions
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$$
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u'(c(\omega)) = \lambda.
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$$
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This condition implies that $c(\omega)$ equals a constant $c$ that is independent
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These conditions imply that $c(\omega)$ equals a constant $c$ that is independent
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of $\omega$.
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To find $c$, use the feasibility constraint {eq}`eq:feas200` to conclude that
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To find $c$, use feasibility constraint {eq}`eq:feas200` to conclude that
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$$
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c(\omega) = c = C.
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It appears often in aggregate economics.
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We shall use it in this lecture and in {doc}`Cass-Koopmans Competitive Equilibrium <cass_koopmans_2>`.
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We shall use this aggregation theory here and also in this lecture {doc}`Cass-Koopmans Competitive Equilibrium <cass_koopmans_2>`.
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#### An Economy
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The representative household inelastically supplies a single unit of
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labor $N_t$ at each $t$, so that
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$N_t =1 \text{ for all } t \in [0,T]$.
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$N_t =1 \text{ for all } t \in \{0, 1, \ldots, T\}$.
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The representative household has preferences over consumption bundles
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ordered by the utility functional:
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```
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where $\beta \in (0,1)$ is a discount factor and $\gamma >0$
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governs the curvature of the one-period utility function with larger $\gamma$ implying more curvature.
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governs the curvature of the one-period utility function.
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Larger $\gamma$'s imply more curvature.
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Note that
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@@ -200,7 +202,7 @@ A feasible allocation $\vec{C}, \vec{K}$ satisfies
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```{math}
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:label: allocation
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C_t + K_{t+1} \leq F(K_t,N_t) + (1-\delta) K_t, \quad \text{for all } t \in [0, T]
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C_t + K_{t+1} \leq F(K_t,N_t) + (1-\delta) K_t \quad \text{for all } t \in \{0, 1, \ldots, T\}
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```
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where $\delta \in (0,1)$ is a depreciation rate of capital.
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\left(F(K_t,1) + (1-\delta) K_t- C_t - K_{t+1} \right)\right\}
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$$ (eq:Lagrangian201)
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and then pose the following min-max problem:
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and pose the following min-max problem:
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```{math}
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:label: min-max-prob
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maximization with respect to $\vec{C}, \vec{K}$ and
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minimization with respect to $\vec{\mu}$.
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- Our problem satisfies
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conditions that assure that required second-order
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conditions that assure that second-order
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conditions are satisfied at an allocation that satisfies the
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first-order conditions that we are about to compute.
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first-order necessary conditions that we are about to compute.
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Before computing first-order conditions, we present some handy formulas.
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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(Here we are using that $N_t = 1$ for all $t$, so that $K_t = \frac{K_t}{N_t}$.)
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### First-order necessary conditions
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We now compute **first-order necessary conditions** for extremization of the Lagrangian {eq}`eq:Lagrangian201`:
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We now compute **first-order necessary conditions** for extremization of Lagrangian {eq}`eq:Lagrangian201`:
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```{math}
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:label: constraint1
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```
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In computing {eq}`constraint3` we recognize that $K_t$ appears
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in both the time $t$ and time $t-1$ feasibility constraints.
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in both the time $t$ and time $t-1$ feasibility constraints {eq}`allocation`.
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Restrictions {eq}`constraint4` come from differentiating with respect
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to $K_{T+1}$ and applying the following **Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition** (KKT)
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u'\left(C_{t}\right) \quad \text{ for all } t=0,1,\dots, T
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```
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Applying the inverse of the utility function on both sides of the above
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Applying the inverse marginal utility of consumption function on both sides of the above
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equation gives
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$$
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(1-\delta)]\right)^{1/\gamma} \end{aligned}
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$$
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This is a non-linear first-order difference equation that an optimal sequence $\vec C$ must satisfy.
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Below we define a `jitclass` that stores parameters and functions
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that define our economy.
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$\vec{C}, \vec{K}$ and an associated Lagrange multiplier sequence
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$\vec{\mu}$.
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The first-order necessary conditions
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First-order necessary conditions
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{eq}`constraint1`, {eq}`constraint2`, and
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{eq}`constraint3` for the planning problem form a system of **difference equations** with
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two boundary conditions:
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- We could continue in this way to compute the remaining elements of
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$\vec{C}, \vec{K}, \vec{\mu}$.
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But we don't have an initial condition for $\mu_0$, so this
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won't work.
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However, we woujld not be assured that the Kuhn-Tucker condition {eq}`kkt` would be satisfied.
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Furthermore, we don't have an initial condition for $\mu_0$.
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So this won't work.
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Indeed, part of our task is to compute the optimal value of $\mu_0$.
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Indeed, part of our task is to compute the **optimal** value of $\mu_0$.
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To compute $\mu_0$ and the other objects we want, a simple modification of the above procedure will work.
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@@ -490,7 +499,7 @@ algorithm that consists of the following steps:
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- Guess an initial Lagrange multiplier $\mu_0$.
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- Apply the **simple algorithm** described above.
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- Compute $k_{T+1}$ and check whether it
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- Compute $K_{T+1}$ and check whether it
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equals zero.
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- If $K_{T+1} =0$, we have solved the problem.
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- If $K_{T+1} > 0$, lower $\mu_0$ and try again.
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The following Python code implements the shooting algorithm for the
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planning problem.
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We actually modify the algorithm slightly by starting with a guess for
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$c_0$ instead of $\mu_0$ in the following code.
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(Actually, we modified the preceding algorithm slightly by starting with a guess for
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$c_0$ instead of $\mu_0$ in the following code.)
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```{code-cell} python3
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@njit
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$\mu_0$ because $C_0$ is an exact function of
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$\mu_0$).
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We know that the lowest $C_0$ can ever be is $0$ and the
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We know that the lowest $C_0$ can ever be is $0$ and that the
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largest it can be is initial output $f(K_0)$.
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Guess $C_0$ and shoot forward to $T+1$.
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In a steady state $K_{t+1} = K_t=\bar{K}$ for all very
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large $t$.
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Evalauating the feasibility constraint {eq}`allocation` at $\bar K$ gives
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Evalauating feasibility constraint {eq}`allocation` at $\bar K$ gives
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```{math}
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:label: feasibility-constraint
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\bar{K} = f'^{-1}(\rho+\delta)
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$$
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For the production function {eq}`production-function` this becomes
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For production function {eq}`production-function`, this becomes
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$$
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\alpha \bar{K}^{\alpha-1} = \rho + \delta
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plot_paths(pp, 0.3, k_ss/3, [250, 150, 50, 25], k_ss=k_ss);
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```
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Different colors in the above graphs are associated with
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In the above graphs, different colors are associated with
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different horizons $T$.
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Notice that as the horizon increases, the planner puts $K_t$
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Notice that as the horizon increases, the planner keeps $K_t$
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closer to the steady state value $\bar K$ for longer.
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This pattern reflects a **turnpike** property of the steady state.
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The planner chooses a positive saving rate that is higher than the steady state
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saving rate.
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Note, $f''(K)<0$, so as $K$ rises, $f'(K)$ declines.
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Note that $f''(K)<0$, so as $K$ rises, $f'(K)$ declines.
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The planner slowly lowers the saving rate until reaching a steady
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state in which $f'(K)=\rho +\delta$.
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In that lecture, we replace the planner of this lecture with Adam Smith's **invisible hand**.
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In place of quantity choices made by the planner, there are market prices that are set by a mechanism outside the model, a so-called invisible hand.
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In place of quantity choices made by the planner, there are market prices that are set by a *deus ex machina* from outside the model, a so-called invisible hand.
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Equilibrium market prices must reconcile distinct decisions that are made independently
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by a representative household and a representative firm.

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