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Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/cagan_adaptive.md
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## Introduction
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This lecture is a sequel or prequel to another lecture {doc}`monetarist theory of price levels <cagan_ree>`.
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This lecture is a sequel or prequel to the lecture {doc}`cagan_ree`.
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We'll use linear algebra to do some experiments with an alternative "monetarist" or "fiscal" theory of price levels".
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We'll use linear algebra to do some experiments with an alternative "monetarist" or "fiscal" theory of price levels.
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Like the model in this lecture {doc}`monetarist theory of price levels <cagan_ree>`, the model asserts that when a government persistently spends more than it collects in taxes and prints money to finance the shortfall, it puts upward pressure on the price level and generates persistent inflation.
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Like the model in {doc}`cagan_ree`, the model asserts that when a government persistently spends more than it collects in taxes and prints money to finance the shortfall, it puts upward pressure on the price level and generates persistent inflation.
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Instead of the "perfect foresight" or "rational expectations" version of the model in this lecture {doc}`monetarist theory of price levels <cagan_ree>`, our model in the present lecture is an "adaptive expectations" version of a model that Philip Cagan {cite}`Cagan` used to study the monetary dynamics of hyperinflations.
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Instead of the "perfect foresight" or "rational expectations" version of the model in {doc}`cagan_ree`, our model in the present lecture is an "adaptive expectations" version of a model that Philip Cagan {cite}`Cagan` used to study the monetary dynamics of hyperinflations.
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It combines these components:
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Our model stays quite close to Cagan's original specification.
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As in the {doc}`present values <pv>` and {doc}`consumption smoothing<cons_smooth>` lectures, the only linear algebra operations that we'll be using are matrix multiplication and matrix inversion.
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As in the lectures {doc}`pv` and {doc}`cons_smooth`, the only linear algebra operations that we'll be using are matrix multiplication and matrix inversion.
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To facilitate using linear matrix algebra as our principal mathematical tool, we'll use a finite horizon version of
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the model.
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* $\pi_0^*$ public's initial expected rate of inflation between time $0$ and time $1$.
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The demand for real balances $\exp\left(\frac{m_t^d}{p_t}\right)$ is governed by the following version of the Cagan demand function
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The demand for real balances $\exp\left(m_t^d-p_t\right)$ is governed by the following version of the Cagan demand function
As exogenous inputs into the model, we take initial conditions $m_0, \pi_0^*$
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and a money growth sequence $\mu = \{\mu_t\}_{t=0}^T$.
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As endogenous outputs of our model we want to find sequences $\pi = \{\pi_t\}_{t=0}^T, p = \{p_t\}_{t=0}^T$ as functions of the endogenous inputs.
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As endogenous outputs of our model we want to find sequences $\pi = \{\pi_t\}_{t=0}^T, p = \{p_t\}_{t=0}^T$ as functions of the exogenous inputs.
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We'll do some mental experiments by studying how the model outputs vary as we vary
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the model inputs.
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This outcome is typical in models in which adaptive expectations hypothesis like equation {eq}`eq:adaptexpn` appear as a
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component.
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In this lecture {doc}`monetarist theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`, we studied a version of the model that replaces hypothesis {eq}`eq:adaptexpn` with
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In {doc}`cagan_ree` we studied a version of the model that replaces hypothesis {eq}`eq:adaptexpn` with
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a "perfect foresight" or "rational expectations" hypothesis.
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Notice that we studied exactly this experiment in a rational expectations version of the model in this lecture {doc}`monetarist theory of the price level <cagan_ree>`.
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Notice that we studied exactly this experiment in a rational expectations version of the model in {doc}`cagan_ree`.
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So by comparing outcomes across the two lectures, we can learn about consequences of assuming adaptive expectations, as we do here, instead of rational expectations as we assumed in that other lecture.
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We invite the reader to compare outcomes with those under rational expectations studied in another lecture {doc}`monetarist theory of price levels <cagan_ree>`.
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We invite the reader to compare outcomes with those under rational expectations studied in {doc}`cagan_ree`.
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Please note how the actual inflation rate $\pi_t$ "overshoots" its ultimate steady-state value at the time of the sudden reduction in the rate of growth of the money supply at time $T_1$.
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