@@ -39,11 +39,11 @@ particular direction.
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This lecture has two sequels that offer further extensions of the Barro model
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- 1. :doc: `How to Pay for a War: Part 2 <tax_smoothing_2 >`
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+ 1. :doc: `How to Pay for a War: Part 2 <tax_smoothing_2 >`
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+
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+ 2. :doc: `How to Pay for a War: Part 3 <tax_smoothing_3 >`
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- 2. :doc: `How to Pay for a War: Part 3 <tax_smoothing_3 >`
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-
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The extensions are modified versions of
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his 1979 model later suggested by Barro (1999 :cite: `barro1999determinants `, 2003 :cite: `barro2003religion `).
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@@ -53,9 +53,9 @@ caused by taxes.
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Technical tractability induced Barro :cite: `Barro1979 ` to assume that
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- - the government trades only one-period risk-free debt, and
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+ - the government trades only one-period risk-free debt, and
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- - the one-period risk-free interest rate is constant
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+ - the one-period risk-free interest rate is constant
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By using *Markov jump linear quadratic dynamic
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programming * we can allow interest rates to move over time in
@@ -70,22 +70,22 @@ model along lines he suggested in Barro (1999 :cite:`barro1999determinants`, 200
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Barro (1979) :cite: `Barro1979 ` assumed
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- - that a government faces an **exogenous sequence ** of expenditures
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- that it must finance by a tax collection sequence whose expected
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- present value equals the initial debt it owes plus the expected
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- present value of those expenditures.
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+ - that a government faces an **exogenous sequence ** of expenditures
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+ that it must finance by a tax collection sequence whose expected
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+ present value equals the initial debt it owes plus the expected
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+ present value of those expenditures.
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- - that the government wants to minimize the following measure of tax
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- distortions: :math: `E_0 \sum _{t=0 }^{\infty } \beta ^t T_t^2 `, where :math: `T_t` are total tax collections and :math: `E_0 `
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- is a mathematical expectation conditioned on time :math: `0 `
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- information.
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+ - that the government wants to minimize the following measure of tax
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+ distortions: :math: `E_0 \sum _{t=0 }^{\infty } \beta ^t T_t^2 `, where :math: `T_t` are total tax collections and :math: `E_0 `
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+ is a mathematical expectation conditioned on time :math: `0 `
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+ information.
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- - that the government trades only one asset, a risk-free one-period
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- bond.
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+ - that the government trades only one asset, a risk-free one-period
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+ bond.
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- - that the gross interest rate on the one-period bond is constant and
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- equal to :math: `\beta ^{-1 }`, the reciprocal of the factor
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- :math: `\beta ` at which the government discounts future tax distortions.
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+ - that the gross interest rate on the one-period bond is constant and
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+ equal to :math: `\beta ^{-1 }`, the reciprocal of the factor
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+ :math: `\beta ` at which the government discounts future tax distortions.
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Barro’s model can be mapped into a discounted linear quadratic dynamic
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programming problem.
@@ -94,11 +94,11 @@ Partly inspired by Barro
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(1999) :cite: `barro1999determinants ` and Barro (2003) :cite: `barro2003religion `,
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our generalizations of Barro’s (1979) :cite: `Barro1979 ` model assume
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- - that the government borrows or saves in the form of risk-free bonds
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- of maturities :math: `1 , 2 , \ldots , H`.
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+ - that the government borrows or saves in the form of risk-free bonds
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+ of maturities :math: `1 , 2 , \ldots , H`.
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- - that interest rates on those bonds are time-varying and in particular,
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- governed by a jointly stationary stochastic process.
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+ - that interest rates on those bonds are time-varying and in particular,
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+ governed by a jointly stationary stochastic process.
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Our generalizations are designed to fit within a generalization of an
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ordinary linear quadratic dynamic programming problem in which matrices
@@ -108,20 +108,20 @@ function are **time-varying** and **stochastic**.
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This generalization, known as a **Markov jump linear quadratic dynamic
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program **, combines
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- - the computational simplicity of **linear quadratic dynamic
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- programming **, and
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+ - the computational simplicity of **linear quadratic dynamic
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+ programming **, and
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- - the ability of **finite state Markov chains ** to represent
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- interesting patterns of random variation.
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+ - the ability of **finite state Markov chains ** to represent
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+ interesting patterns of random variation.
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We want the stochastic time variation in the matrices defining the
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dynamic programming problem to represent variation over time in
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- - interest rates
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+ - interest rates
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- - default rates
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+ - default rates
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- - roll over risks
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+ - roll over risks
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As described in :doc: `Markov Jump LQ dynamic programming <markov_jump_lq >`,
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the idea underlying **Markov jump linear quadratic dynamic programming **
@@ -139,26 +139,26 @@ Public Finance Questions
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Barro’s 1979 :cite: `Barro1979 ` model is designed to answer questions such as
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- - Should a government finance an exogenous surge in government
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- expenditures by raising taxes or borrowing?
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+ - Should a government finance an exogenous surge in government
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+ expenditures by raising taxes or borrowing?
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- - How does the answer to that first question depend on the exogenous
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- stochastic process for government expenditures, for example, on
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- whether the surge in government expenditures can be expected to be
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- temporary or permanent?
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+ - How does the answer to that first question depend on the exogenous
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+ stochastic process for government expenditures, for example, on
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+ whether the surge in government expenditures can be expected to be
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+ temporary or permanent?
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Barro’s 1999 :cite: `barro1999determinants ` and 2003 :cite: `barro2003religion `
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models are designed to answer more fine-grained
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questions such as
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- - What determines whether a government wants to issue short-term or
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- long-term debt?
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+ - What determines whether a government wants to issue short-term or
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+ long-term debt?
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- - How do roll-over risks affect that decision?
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+ - How do roll-over risks affect that decision?
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- - How does the government’s long-short *portfolio management * decision
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- depend on features of the exogenous stochastic process for government
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- expenditures?
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+ - How does the government’s long-short *portfolio management * decision
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+ depend on features of the exogenous stochastic process for government
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+ expenditures?
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Thus, both the simple and the more fine-grained versions of Barro’s
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models are ways of precisely formulating the classic issue of *How to
@@ -167,9 +167,9 @@ pay for a war*.
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This lecture describes:
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- - An application of Markov jump LQ dynamic programming to a model in
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- which a government faces exogenous time-varying interest rates for
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- issuing one-period risk-free debt.
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+ - An application of Markov jump LQ dynamic programming to a model in
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+ which a government faces exogenous time-varying interest rates for
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+ issuing one-period risk-free debt.
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A :doc: `sequel to this
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lecture <tax_smoothing_2>`
@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ variable at time :math:`t`.
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To begin, we assume that
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:math: `p_{t,t+1 }` is constant (and equal to :math: `\beta `)
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- * later we will extend the model to allow :math: `p_{t,t+1 }` to vary over time
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+ * later we will extend the model to allow :math: `p_{t,t+1 }` to vary over time
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To map into the LQ framework, we use
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:math: `x_t = \begin {bmatrix} b_{t-1 ,t} \\ z_t \end {bmatrix}` as the
@@ -267,8 +267,8 @@ To do this, we set
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.. math ::
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- A_{22 } = \begin {bmatrix} 1 & 0 \\ \bar G & \rho \end {bmatrix} \hspace {2 mm} ,
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- \hspace {2 mm} C_2 = \begin {bmatrix} 0 \\ \sigma \end {bmatrix}
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+ A_{22 } = \begin {bmatrix} 1 & 0 \\ \bar G & \rho \end {bmatrix} \hspace {2 mm} ,
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+ \hspace {2 mm} C_2 = \begin {bmatrix} 0 \\ \sigma \end {bmatrix}
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.. code-block :: python3
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