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update rst to remove problematic whitespace for conversion using tomyst (#145)
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source/rst/tax_smoothing_1.rst

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This lecture has two sequels that offer further extensions of the Barro model
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1. :doc:`How to Pay for a War: Part 2 <tax_smoothing_2>`
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1. :doc:`How to Pay for a War: Part 2 <tax_smoothing_2>`
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2. :doc:`How to Pay for a War: Part 3 <tax_smoothing_3>`
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2. :doc:`How to Pay for a War: Part 3 <tax_smoothing_3>`
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The extensions are modified versions of
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his 1979 model later suggested by Barro (1999 :cite:`barro1999determinants`, 2003 :cite:`barro2003religion`).
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Technical tractability induced Barro :cite:`Barro1979` to assume that
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- the government trades only one-period risk-free debt, and
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- the government trades only one-period risk-free debt, and
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- the one-period risk-free interest rate is constant
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- the one-period risk-free interest rate is constant
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By using *Markov jump linear quadratic dynamic
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programming* we can allow interest rates to move over time in
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Barro (1979) :cite:`Barro1979` assumed
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- that a government faces an **exogenous sequence** of expenditures
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that it must finance by a tax collection sequence whose expected
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present value equals the initial debt it owes plus the expected
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present value of those expenditures.
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- that a government faces an **exogenous sequence** of expenditures
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that it must finance by a tax collection sequence whose expected
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present value equals the initial debt it owes plus the expected
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present value of those expenditures.
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- that the government wants to minimize the following measure of tax
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distortions: :math:`E_0 \sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \beta^t T_t^2`, where :math:`T_t` are total tax collections and :math:`E_0`
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is a mathematical expectation conditioned on time :math:`0`
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information.
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- that the government wants to minimize the following measure of tax
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distortions: :math:`E_0 \sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \beta^t T_t^2`, where :math:`T_t` are total tax collections and :math:`E_0`
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is a mathematical expectation conditioned on time :math:`0`
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information.
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- that the government trades only one asset, a risk-free one-period
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bond.
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- that the government trades only one asset, a risk-free one-period
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bond.
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- that the gross interest rate on the one-period bond is constant and
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equal to :math:`\beta^{-1}`, the reciprocal of the factor
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:math:`\beta` at which the government discounts future tax distortions.
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- that the gross interest rate on the one-period bond is constant and
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equal to :math:`\beta^{-1}`, the reciprocal of the factor
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:math:`\beta` at which the government discounts future tax distortions.
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Barro’s model can be mapped into a discounted linear quadratic dynamic
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programming problem.
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(1999) :cite:`barro1999determinants` and Barro (2003) :cite:`barro2003religion`,
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our generalizations of Barro’s (1979) :cite:`Barro1979` model assume
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- that the government borrows or saves in the form of risk-free bonds
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of maturities :math:`1, 2, \ldots , H`.
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- that the government borrows or saves in the form of risk-free bonds
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of maturities :math:`1, 2, \ldots , H`.
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- that interest rates on those bonds are time-varying and in particular,
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governed by a jointly stationary stochastic process.
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- that interest rates on those bonds are time-varying and in particular,
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governed by a jointly stationary stochastic process.
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Our generalizations are designed to fit within a generalization of an
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ordinary linear quadratic dynamic programming problem in which matrices
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This generalization, known as a **Markov jump linear quadratic dynamic
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program**, combines
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- the computational simplicity of **linear quadratic dynamic
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programming**, and
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- the computational simplicity of **linear quadratic dynamic
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programming**, and
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- the ability of **finite state Markov chains** to represent
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interesting patterns of random variation.
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- the ability of **finite state Markov chains** to represent
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interesting patterns of random variation.
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We want the stochastic time variation in the matrices defining the
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dynamic programming problem to represent variation over time in
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- interest rates
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- interest rates
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- default rates
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- default rates
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- roll over risks
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- roll over risks
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As described in :doc:`Markov Jump LQ dynamic programming <markov_jump_lq>`,
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the idea underlying **Markov jump linear quadratic dynamic programming**
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Barro’s 1979 :cite:`Barro1979` model is designed to answer questions such as
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- Should a government finance an exogenous surge in government
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expenditures by raising taxes or borrowing?
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- Should a government finance an exogenous surge in government
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expenditures by raising taxes or borrowing?
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- How does the answer to that first question depend on the exogenous
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stochastic process for government expenditures, for example, on
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whether the surge in government expenditures can be expected to be
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temporary or permanent?
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- How does the answer to that first question depend on the exogenous
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stochastic process for government expenditures, for example, on
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whether the surge in government expenditures can be expected to be
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temporary or permanent?
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Barro’s 1999 :cite:`barro1999determinants` and 2003 :cite:`barro2003religion`
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models are designed to answer more fine-grained
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questions such as
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- What determines whether a government wants to issue short-term or
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long-term debt?
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- What determines whether a government wants to issue short-term or
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long-term debt?
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- How do roll-over risks affect that decision?
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- How do roll-over risks affect that decision?
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- How does the government’s long-short *portfolio management* decision
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depend on features of the exogenous stochastic process for government
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expenditures?
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- How does the government’s long-short *portfolio management* decision
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depend on features of the exogenous stochastic process for government
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expenditures?
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Thus, both the simple and the more fine-grained versions of Barro’s
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models are ways of precisely formulating the classic issue of *How to
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This lecture describes:
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- An application of Markov jump LQ dynamic programming to a model in
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which a government faces exogenous time-varying interest rates for
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issuing one-period risk-free debt.
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- An application of Markov jump LQ dynamic programming to a model in
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which a government faces exogenous time-varying interest rates for
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issuing one-period risk-free debt.
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A :doc:`sequel to this
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lecture <tax_smoothing_2>`
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To begin, we assume that
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:math:`p_{t,t+1}` is constant (and equal to :math:`\beta`)
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* later we will extend the model to allow :math:`p_{t,t+1}` to vary over time
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* later we will extend the model to allow :math:`p_{t,t+1}` to vary over time
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To map into the LQ framework, we use
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:math:`x_t = \begin{bmatrix} b_{t-1,t} \\ z_t \end{bmatrix}` as the
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.. math::
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A_{22} = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0 \\ \bar G & \rho \end{bmatrix} \hspace{2mm} ,
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\hspace{2mm} C_2 = \begin{bmatrix} 0 \\ \sigma \end{bmatrix}
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A_{22} = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0 \\ \bar G & \rho \end{bmatrix} \hspace{2mm} ,
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\hspace{2mm} C_2 = \begin{bmatrix} 0 \\ \sigma \end{bmatrix}
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.. code-block:: python3
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