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committedJan 13, 2014
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‎Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/LawOfLargeNumbers.ipynb

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"### Sorting!\n",
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"We have been ignoring the goal of this exercise: how do we sort the comments from *best to worst*? Of course, we cannot sort distributions, we must sort scalar numbers. There are many ways to distill a distribution down to a scalar: expressing the distribution through its expected value, or mean, is one way. Choosing the mean bad choice though. This is because the mean does not take into account the uncertainty of distributions.\n",
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"We have been ignoring the goal of this exercise: how do we sort the comments from *best to worst*? Of course, we cannot sort distributions, we must sort scalar numbers. There are many ways to distill a distribution down to a scalar: expressing the distribution through its expected value, or mean, is one way. Choosing the mean is a bad choice though. This is because the mean does not take into account the uncertainty of distributions.\n",
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"I suggest using the *95% least plausible value*, defined as the value such that there is only a 5% chance the true parameter is lower (think of the lower bound on the 95% credible region). Below are the posterior distributions with the 95% least-plausible value plotted:"
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